Category : Strategy

Gambling – Sometimes the Law of Averages Works

There is a well known myth that has become known as “the gambler’s folly”, or alternatively “the law of averages”. This goes “if something hasn’t happened for a long time and statistically it should have; then it is more likely to happen in the future”. In other words, if in a lottery a specific number hasn’t come up anywhere near as many times as it should have on average, then it is more likely to come up in the next and in subsequent draws.

The arguments against this are that as each draw (or spin of a coin, spin of a roulette wheel and so forth) is an independent event, it is not influenced by what has happened previously and does not have a bearing on what might happen in the future; a lottery ball does not have a memory and it does not know that it has not been selected enough times, after all it has not been deliberately avoiding being picked.

However, there is anecdotal evidence that the law of averages does pay off, and what follows is a true story concerning the author’s father who was very keen on the football pools.

It was in the days before home computers, so all his efforts were painstakingly recorded in many hard backed notebooks. Every week he would record detailed information on all the football results, ignoring Scotland because he thought Scottish football results to be too random. He did not concern himself with the actual football (though he was interested in the sport and had at one time played for Notts. County reserves); he was simply interested in the numbers.

He would plot the number of score and no-score draws and the home and away wins associated with each number and he would calculate what he called each number’s expectation of a specific result. He would then rank the numbers in terms of draw expectation and he would use these to calculate complex permutations that he believed would increase his chances of winning. Simply put, he firmly believed that if say number 15 on the football pools had received only two drawn games whilst say number 24 might have received nine drawn games, then 15 would be more likely than 24 to be a draw in subsequent weeks and that the likelihood depended on the draw difference between the numbers.

Of course, mathematically that is nonsense, and as a science teacher he should have known it, but it worked for him. He regularly won the pools, not large amounts but enough to make a profit, which he did every year for a decade or so. And of course there was always the chance of a big win. The law of averages shouldn’t work, except that sometimes in some cases it does.

When Not to Play

In our lives, a person usually has their activities that they love that help them relax. One of the best relaxants in the world is money, as it can just make everything in the world feel just right. No matter what may be ailing a person, making a little bit more money is just the thing that will pick up even the most down person. It’s noteworthy to state, money isn’t everything, but it is when we don’t particularly have too much. When it comes to emotions, they really have no place in gambling, although they may be a good stress reliever, it’s really not good to have some bad feelings harboring.

As we already know, emotions cloud a lot of the judgement, and that’s the main ingredient when it comes to making an astute gambler. When a person is a little teed off, they are bound to make brash decisions, much like they would if they are talking to a person that they’re angry at, like an argument. Or, something that casinos are notorious for, a drunk gambler is generally a bad gambler. Rarely are there free drinks, and that’s how they rope a person in and make them lose money. We’re generally free with our money when we’re a little drunk, and this is doubly so when there’s gambling involved.

Playing with a clouded state of mind will only result in the person losing more than they may anticipate. Just by trying to relax has a direct impact as to how much a person can earn.

Don’t Play Every Hand

Gambling has enriched our lives in pretty much every way, but especially in our pockets. We all want to win some money, and that’s the reason why we’re here. We’ve invested money in this, and there’s no way that we’re going to keep losing. Even though it’s bound to happen, we want to stay in the green, and keep far away from the red. For the novice, there are quite a few resources that we can exhaust if we’re going to be profitable. And if we really want to earn money, the beginning poker player will want to utilize as many as possible.

The poker boom is still going strong, and the leading poker sites have exponential gains, boasting quite a few sign ups each and every day. Of course, there are quite a few professionals out there that make a boatload of money any day that they sit at the table. While they may be a little guarded with their advice, many of them will agree on the same thing, “don’t play every hand.” It’s just not the smart thing to do, and a person is going to lose all of their money if they do. It’s understandable that the adrenaline runs pretty high, and a person may want to play as much as possible, it’s not advisable.

While it’s ideal for the poker player to play as many games as possible, playing every hand won’t necessarily make them a better poker player. It will make them a broke one.

Know Your Game

Understanding how the game works is the key to victory. For any person who wants to be successful in any endeavor, including gambling, they’re going to want to know exactly what they are getting into if they really want to make any kind of money. Unfortunately, for many people, they have lost a lot of money because they didn’t take the time out to actually understand what was going on, and just threw their money on the table, much to the delight of the casino owners or webmasters. Fortunately, there are quite a number of ways that a person can maximize their chance to earn in a casino, or wherever else they may be investing their money.

Of course, this comes as common sense for some, but with their being so many people losing money with simple mistakes, it may need to be reiterated. Of course, a person will lose some money at some point of their gambling career, but the losses are supposed to diminish as time lapses. But, gambling is all about probability and odds, and knowing them is the difference between success and failure. For instance, if a person is betting on their favorite sports team, they’ll want intimate knowledge of all of the “playmakers” and what they are accustomed to doing in “X” situation. That way, there will be less chances that a person will be surprised.

The seasoned gamblers can play out a sporting event in their heads, and this is why they are so successful. For the prospective gambler, they will need to be able to do the same thing if they want to really earn some money.